In 2023, players across the league successfully stole 3,503 bases, the greatest total since 1987. Much of the increase can be attributed to rule changes that took place last season, limiting the number of times a pitcher can throw over to a base, and making the bases larger. Where this past season stands out in terms of stolen bases was in success rate; MLB players stole bases successfully 80.2% of the time, the highest success rate of any season ever.
Rickey Henderson holds the record for all time stolen bases with 1,406, and came close to the single season record with 130 SB in 1982, but that record is held by Hugh Nicol with 138 SB in the 1887 season. Henderson was a prolific base stealer and arguably the best to ever do it with a success rate of 80.8% across his career. Although remembered for his ability on the bases, Henderson also excelled at the plate, hitting 297 home runs in his career with a .279/.401/.419 slashline and a 127 OPS+.
Typically when evaluating a player’s stats stolen bases are included as a complimentary number with other metrics. What if they were considered within the batting metrics? Considering that a player must first reach base in order to have the opportunity to steal a base; stolen bases can be baked into OPS. Since there are multiple ways to reach base its difficult to tack on stolen bases to just OBP or SLG. Treating a net stolen base as an additional total base, essentially turning a single into a double, a double into triple, and so on, we can observe the impact of stealing bases within OPS.
Taking Rickey Henderson’s career as an example, he accumulated 4,588 total bases and 1,071 net stolen bases, in 10,961 at bats, with a .401 OBP. Including net stolen bases as an extra total base Henderson’s slugging percentage increases from .419 to .516 and increases his career OPS from .820 to .917.
In 2023, Ronald Acuna Jr led the league in net stolen bases with 59 (73 SBs in 87 attempts). Using the same methodology, Acuna increased his OPS from 1.012 to 1.103 by stealing 59 bases. For comparison, Acuna’s teammate, Matt Olson, had a higher slugging percentage at .604 vs .596 for Acuna. Olson had just 1 net stolen base and increased his OPS from .993 to .994. This shows the value of stolen bases within the hitting stats and clearly shows that Acuna is more valuable, something that may have been overlooked if just comparing hitting metrics.
Esteury Ruiz of the Oakland Athletics had an overall dismissible season at the plate in 2023 with a .654 OPS, but swiped 54 net stolen bases to increase his OPS to .774. This was the largest increase for any player who played at least 120 games. In 2023, his OPS+ was 88, meaning he was 12% below league average, but once considering the value added from stolen bases his OPS+ increased to 104, meaning he was 4% better than league average (using the baseline OPS, not inclusive of SBs).
Across the entire league OPS would increase from .731 to .746 if net stolen bases were included. The addition of the rule changes and overall increase in aggressiveness on the base paths has led to a more active game. If the trend continues and stolen bases become more incorporated into the game, we may have to reconsider how they add value and not hold them as a complimentary statistic to batting metrics.
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