Each year MLB Pipeline evaluates all the prospects in baseball and publishes a ranked list of the top 100, top 10 by position, and top 30 by team. Heading into 2024, Jackson Holliday of the Baltimore Orioles leads the list. In 2023, the list was headlined by Gunnar Henderson at #1 & Corbin Carroll at #2, who each took home the Rookie of the Year Award, so there is some recent credibility to the list, but how much weight should a team place on the value of their prospects?
When presented with the opportunity to trade for a top player such as an All Star, MVP, or Cy Young winner, what are the costs and benefits or trading away prospects and acquiring a known commodity? This offseason there have been two huge trades, with the Orioles acquiring starter Corbin Burnes, and the Yankees acquiring outfielders Juan Soto & Trent Grisham. Both Burnes & Soto are expected to be free agents after the 2024 season, but will make immediate impacts on the success of their respective teams.
Corbin Burnes is 29 years old and has a career 3.26 ERA and 13.5 career WAR, along with 3 selections to an All Star Game, and a Cy Young Award win. The Baltimore Orioles traded 25 year old infielder Joey Ortiz and 25 year old left handed pitcher DL Hall. Ortiz has just 34 plate appearances in the MLB and was most recently ranked as Orioles’ 15th best prospect in 2022. Hall has accumulated 33.0 IP over the past 2 seasons with a 4.36 ERA, working mostly out of the bullpen, and was most recently ranked as the Orioles’ 5th best prospect and 90th in baseball in 2022. It is safe to say, the Orioles will not miss Ortiz & Hall with Burnes leading their rotation. Its also important to note that Burnes will earn $15.6M in 2024, which also played a factor in value of prospects the Brewers received, as they are were eager to remove money from their payroll.
Juan Soto is 25 years old and has a career WAR of 28.6 in 6 seasons and 779 games played. He has been selected to 3 All Star Games, and earned 4 Silver Slugger Awards, establishing himself as one of the best hitters in the league. The Yankees traded pitchers Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez, & Jhony Brito with MLB catcher Kyle Higashiosaka to acquire Soto and Trent Grisham. King (28 years old) has spent 5 seasons in the MLB accumulating a 5.5 WAR and a 3.38 ERA, with most of his success coming in 2023 where he posted a 3.2 WAR and 2.75 ERA. King ranked as the Yankees’ 25th best prospect in 2020, but Drew Thorpe (23 years old), yet to make his major league debut is ranked 85th in baseball entering the 2024 season. As for Randy Vasquez (25 years old), after the trade he is Padres’ 15th best prospect, and Jhonny Brito is unranked. The Yankees turned to free agency to fill holes in their rotation, but they also are glad to add Juan Soto to their lineup for this price. Time will tell how Drew Thorpe pans out.
It is difficult to determine how the previously mentioned prospects and young players will pan out. Some have not made their Major League debut and others are just entering the league. 2024 marks the 10th anniversary of the 2015 Top Prospect List being published, so enough time has passed to evaluate how accurate it was. The list was headlined with Byron Buxton at #1, who has successfully accumulated a 21.0 WAR, with 1 selection to an All Star Game and won 1 Gold Glove Award.
Overall the top of the 2015 list accurately captured the players who would eventually make an impact: headlined by the previously mentioned Buxton, followed by #2 Kris Bryant (28.2 WAR, 4x AS, 1x MVP, 1x ROY), #3 Carlos Correa (40.9 WAR, 2x AS, 1x ROY, 1x GG), #4 Francisco Lindor (42.7 WAR, 4x AS, 2x GG, 3x SS), and #5 Addison Russel (11.3 WAR, 1x AS). Note, that Russel’s career in the MLB was cut short due to off-field incident, and has been playing in Korea, Mexico, & The Dominican Republic since 2020.
Among the top 100 prospects, 96/100 eventually earned at least one appearance in the MLB, and 82/100 made positive contributions (WAR >0.0) in the MLB. Many of the players in the top 100, eventually turned out to be replacement level, with 48/100 accumulating a WAR of 0.1-10.0, and the rank on the list did correlate to future success, once outside of the top 10.
There were a few instances of players on the 2015 Top 100 Prospect list being traded before making a debut with their team. In 2014, Addison Russel (2015 #5 prospect) was part of a trade to the Cubs for Jason Hammel & Jeff Samardzija, who pitched a combined 179.1 IP in half a season for Oakland, leading the team to a 88 wins, and post season appearance via the Wild Card.
In the 2015 offseason #30 ranked prospect Mark Appel (0.3 career WAR) was part of a trade for the Houston Astros to acquire Ken Giles. Ken Giles would have a rocky 2016 season out of the bullpen with a 4.11 ERA in 65.2 IP, but would lead the Astros to a World Series Championship in 2017, with a 2.30 ERA and 34 saves in 62.2 IP.
Mid-season in 2016, the Cleveland Indians would include #53 ranked prospect Clint Frazier (0.0 career WAR) in a trade to acquire Andrew Miller from the New York Yankees. In 2016, Miller would help lead the Indians to a World Series appearance, eventually losing to the Cubs in 7 games, but he would remain with the team for 2 seasons more, posting a 2.22 ERA in 125.2 IP and 4.6 WAR out of the bullpen. Miller would also contribute to 2 additional division wins in 2017 & 2018 for the Indians.
When presented with the opportunity to trade a prospect for a known commodity, especially one that will make an immediate impact on the team, a team should make that deal. Teams obviously each have their own scouting departments and believe in their own prospects, but they’d essentially be taking a gamble. It will forever be more important to a fan base and team revenue to win now. It does not necessarily make sense to hold onto a player that has a ‘theoretical’ 34% chance of being an impact player (10.1+ career WAR).
Ultimately, teams should be investing in their scouting departments and get a further understanding of the trajectory of their players. Aaron Judge was ranked 68th in baseball in 2015, and the Yankees did not include him in any trades. He would post a 41.5 WAR through the 2023 season. Right behind Judge was JT Realmuto with the Marlins at 70th, and Matt Olson with the Athletics at 73rd, they would accumulate a 33.3 & 29.1 WAR through 2023, respectively.
We shall see how the likes of 2022-2024 top prospects, Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, & Bobby Witt Jr pan out in the next 8-10 years.
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